French Open 2012 - Part 1

It's already the middle of May, which means that the French Open is right around the corner.  In this week's posts, I will make my predictions for the men's and women's 2012 French Open Champions.  I will be looking at the results since 2000 to determine the player who I think is most likely to win.  Let's start by looking at the seed for the winner:

French Open Champions

Year	Men's	Seed	Women's	Seed
2000	Gustavo Kuerten	5	Mary Pierce	6
2001	Gustavo Kuerten	1	Jennifer Capriati	3
2002	Albert Costa	22	Serena Williams	3
2003	Juan Carlos Ferrero	3	Justine Henin	4
2004	Gaston Gaudio	44	Anastasia Myskina	6
2005	Rafael Nadal	5	Justine Henin	10
2006	Rafael Nadal	2	Justine Henin	5
2007	Rafael Nadal	2	Justine Henin	1
2008	Rafael Nadal	2	Ana Ivanovic	2
2009	Roger Federer	2	Svetlana Kuznetsova	7
2010	Rafael Nadal	2	Francesca Schiavone	17
2011	Rafael Nadal	1	Li Na	6

10 of the past 12 men's champions have been seeded 5 or higher.  Using this as our cutoff, this leaves the following players as possible winners this year (by current world ranking):

1. Novak Djokovic
2. Roger Federer
3. Rafael Nadal
4. Andy Murray
5. Jo-Wilfried Tsonga

Djokovic, Federer, and Nadal have won 27 of the past 28 Grand Slam tournaments (Del Porto won the 2009 US Open), but we won't eliminate Murray and Tsonga quite yet.

11 of the past 12 women's champions were seeded in the top 10.  Using the current world rankings, this leaves the following players:

1. Victoria Azarenka
2. Maria Sharapova
3. Agnieszka Radwanska
4. Petra Kvitova
5. Samantha Stosur
6. Serena Williams
7. Marion Bartoli
8. Carolina Wozniacki
9. Li Na
10. Vera Zvonareva

Also note that Kuerten, Nadal, and Henin are the only players since 2000 to have won the French Open as the number 1 seed.  Each time, they were the defending champion.  Since it looks like Djokovic and Azarenka will receive the number 1 seeds and neither won the French Open last year, we will eliminate them from out list.

Now let's look at each champion's performance in that year's Australian Open (the most recent Grand Slam).

French Open Champions

Year	Men's	AO Result	Women's	AO Result
2000	Gustavo Kuerten	1R	Mary Pierce	4R
2001	Gustavo Kuerten	2R	Jennifer Capriati	Win
2002	Albert Costa	4R	Serena Williams	DNP
2003	Juan Carlos Ferrero	QF	Justine Henin	SF
2004	Gaston Gaudio	2R	Anastasia Myskina	QF
2005	Rafael Nadal	4R	Justine Henin	DNP
2006	Rafael Nadal	DNP	Justine Henin	F
2007	Rafael Nadal	QF	Justine Henin	DNP
2008	Rafael Nadal	SF	Ana Ivanovic	F
2009	Roger Federer	F	Svetlana Kuznetsova	QF
2010	Rafael Nadal	QF	Francesca Schiavone	4R
2011	Rafael Nadal	QF	Li Na	F

None of the past 12 men's champions had won the Australian Open in the same year.  Assuming this same pattern holds, this eliminates the 2012 Australian Open Champion, Novak Djokovic (who we had already eliminated). Our updated men's list looks like:

1. Novak Djokovic (#1 seed but not defending champ, AO Winner)
2. Roger Federer
3. Rafael Nadal
4. Andy Murray
5. Jo-Wilfried Tsonga

Each of the past 12 women's champions either did not play (DNP, ocurred 3 times in the past 10 years) or reached at least the 4th round if they did play.  This leaves us with the following women:

1. Victoria Azarenka (#1 seed but not defending champ)
2. Maria Sharapova
3. Agnieszka Radwanska
4. Petra Kvitova
5. Samantha Stosur (1R)
6. Serena Williams
7. Marion Bartoli (3R)
8. Carolina Wozniacki
9. Li Na
10. Vera Zvonareva (3R)

The next post will look at how important previously winning a Grand Slam or winning a clay court warm-up tournament is.