Monday, August 13, 2012

How Usain Bolt can rival Michael Phelps

OK, so this post isn't exactly statistics related, but watching Olympic coverage talk comparing Usain Bolt to Michael Phelps is ridiculous.  First, let me say that without a doubt, Bolt is the fastest man alive.  His performances are the highlight of track and field Olympics.  But, winning back to back gold medals in the 100 and 200 is nowhere near Phelp's 22 medals (18 gold) over 3 Olympics.  Here are 3 ways, in my opinion, for Bolt to end his career on the same page as Phelps.

1. Compete in at least 4 Olympic games.  Phelps competed as a 15 year old at Sydney, swimming in the 200 fly.  Combined with Athens, Beijing and London, Phelps swam in 4 Olympics.  Bolt is only half way there with 2 Olympics.

2. Win both the 100 and 200 at Rio 2016.  Phelps became the first swimmer to (twice) win gold in the same event in 3 consecutive Olympics (100 fly, 200 IM), while just missing out on three-peating with the 200 fly.

3.  Add additional events.  Every commentator who says that Bolt does not have as many opportunities to race as Phelps should be fired on the spot.  Here are other reasonable events for him to race.

  • 400 m: This is only running 2-200's in a row.
  • 4 x 400 relay: This is the most reasonable race for him to add.  Phelps swims the 4x100 free relay (turning in the 2nd fastest split this Olympics), yet he has never swum the 100 free as an individual event.  Bolt doesn't need to be the fastest 400 runner to win a medal, but be part of the fastest team.
  • 110 m hurdles: Yes, this involves hurdles, but he's tall enough to make it over the hurdles and would definitely be the fastest pure runner in the race.
  • Long jump: Jesse Owens won 4 gold medals in the 1936 Olympics including the 100, 200, 4x100 and long jump.  Bolt has never had a single Olympics as successful as Owen's performance.
  • High jump and triple jump: see above.

I just listed 6 additional events for Bolt to possibly compete in.  Yes, many of the events would take him out of his comfort zone, but winning these off events is what distinguishes legends from greats.  If he added the 4x400 relay with another individual event and won golds in those events, I would then start to think of Bolt as competing on equal footing with Phelps.

And please don't argue that the schedule wouldn't work.  Phelps (and Lochte, Franklin, etc.) won gold medals within an hour of swimming in another final or semi-final.  I've yet to see a top Olympic track athlete push themselves and race multiple finals/semi races in the same day.  So Bolt could be innovative in this manner too.

Finally, Ranomi Kromowidjojo is a female swimmer from the Netherlands won gold in both the 50 and 100 free and silver in the 4x100 free relay this Olympics.  If she wins gold in all 3 events next Olympics and sets a few records in the process, will she be considered the greatest female swimmer ever? NO.  But isn't her event schedule comparable to Bolt's (minus the relay)? YES! 



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