Wimbledon Picks 2012 (Explanation)

With the first week of Wimbledon now a thing of the past, I figured I should actually give my reasoning for my Wimbledon picks.

First, I went with my gut (over data because I didn't have the time) when picking the men's and women's sleepers - players outside the top 10 to go the furthest.  I picked John Isner and Venus Williams who both lost first round.  Guess I shouldn't listen to my gut feeling when making picks anymore.

So let's get to the picks that I actually put some thought into.  I only looked at one stat when choosing my women's champion.  Here are the results of the Williams sisters (both singles and doubles) at Wimbledon since 2000.

Williams Sisters Wimbledon Results 

Year	Doubles Result	Venus Singles	Serena Singles
2000	WON	WON	SF
2001	3RD	WON	QF
2002	WON	RUP	WON
2003	3RD	RUP	WON
2004	-	2RD	RUP
2005	-	WON	3RD
2006	-	3RD	-
2007	2RD	WON	QF
2008	WON	WON	RUP
2009	WON	RUP	WON
2010	QF	QF	WON
2011	-	4RD	4RD

Since 2000, every year that the Williams sisters have played doubles at Wimbledon (highlighted), one of them also wins the singles title (8/8, with both Williams reaching the Final 4 times).  Notice that it doesn't matter how they perform in the doubles, as long as they are playing.  The 4 years that the Williams did not play doubles, often due to one sister being injured, only once did one of them win the singles title (Venus in 2005).  

Serena and Venus entered to play doubles this year (they are currently in the 2nd round).  Looking at past results, the probability that a Williams wins the single title given they play doubles is 1.  So all I had to do was choose between Serena or Venus winning.  I went with Serena because she is the higher ranked and Venus is coming back from injuries.  As of this post, Serena has won her first 3 singles matches and is still alive.

For the men's, I looked at the winner's seed and previous year's performance since 2003 (Federer's first Wimbledon win).

Men's Wimbledon Champions 

Year	Winner	Seed	Previous Result
2003	Roger Federer	4	1st
2004	Roger Federer	1	WON
2005	Roger Federer	1	WON
2006	Roger Federer	1	WON
2007	Roger Federer	1	WON
2008	Rafael Nadal	2	RUP
2009	Roger Federer	2*	RUP
2010	Rafael Nadal	2	-
2011	Novak Djokovic	2	SF

* Federer was the 2 seed, but he was technically the top seed after Nadal withdrew as the number 1 seed with injury before the 2009 tournament began.

Because Federer, Nadal and Djokovic have won 28 of the last 29 major titles, I have eliminated the rest of the field.  I eliminated Federer because it has been one of the top 2 seeds to win every year since 2004.  I went with Djokovic over Nadal because the defending champion has won 6 of the last 9 years (if I consider Federer the defending champ in 2009 since Nadal withdrew and Nadal the defending champ in 2010 since he had not defended his title.**)  Also, Federer and Nadal each defended their first Wimbledon title by winning the following year that they played.  This gives me belief that Djokovic will continue this trend and win his second straight Wimbledon title.  

My men's pick is looking even better after Nadal lost in the second round.  (Still, I'll be cheering for Roger Federer to win the title as he is my favorite player.)

** Under this argument, both Federer and Nadal would have been considered defending champions in 2010, so you could change the fraction to 6/10 defending champs winning.